Mach33 scenario, not a forecast
How these dials work
A flight needs a ready ship and a ready booster. These dials set how many of each 2027 starts with, how many get built in 2027, how many times each flies, and how long refurb takes. Every assumption and range here is for that year.
Each dial sets the most likely outcome.
The Likelihood tab runs the year times. Each run picks values from a range of possible outcomes around every dial. Results can land above or below a dial, but most land near it, and the far ends of the range are rare.
Starting fleet
, most likely
On the pad as 2027 opens: a floor today's build rate can field even if current ships are lost
, most likely
On the pad as 2027 opens: a floor today's build rate can field even if current boosters are lost
Ship
, most likely
Starship upper stages, built evenly through 2027
, most likely
Flights before retirement. Low to start.
, most likely days
Days between flights. Long to start.
Booster
, most likely
Built evenly through 2027
, most likely
Flights before retirement
, most likely days
Days between flights
2027 flights by two inputs
White outline: 50 to 100 flights, company guidance one to two flights per week
Read the 15-year Launch Keystone model
How likely, at these dial settings
50+ flights
…
chance of at least 50
Median
…
middle 8 in 10
Chance of at least N flights in 2027, most flights on the left. Hover or tap the chart to read the chance at any flight count.